According to data compiled by Bloomberg, the STI index component stocks now trade at 14.7 times estimated earnings, compared with about 10 times at the start of 2009.
Despite better than expected news on Singapore’s industrial production numbers, the STI continued to be sold down on talk of a possible additional increase of reserve ratios in China.
Further tightening from China?
Reuters reported yesterday that several Chinese lenders will see an additional increase in their reserve ratios take effect. Accordingly, China Citic Bank Corp. and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd were instructed to raise their reserve ratios by an extra 0.5 percentage point. The Chinese central bank had on January 12 ordered all banks to boost their reserve ratio by 50 basis points starting January 18. China aims to restrict overall credit growth to 7.5 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion).
In a separate report yesterday, the International Monetary Fund said that the recovery in industrial nations is expected to be “sluggish,” burdened by rising public debt and high unemployment rates. The IMF raised its global economic growth forecast to 3.9 percent in 2010 from its October projection of 3.1 percent.
Better news on Singapore’s economy
Closer to home, the Economic Development Board yesterday announced that Singapore's industrial production rebounded in December and rose at the fastest pace in five months as higher demand for electronics and chemicals offset a drop in pharmaceuticals output.
Manufacturing, which accounts for about a quarter of Singapore's economy, gained 14.4 percent in December from a year earlier following a revised 9.5 percent decline in November. The median forecast of eight economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 7.4 percent gain.
Singapore's electronics shipments ended an almost three- year slump last month, even as the government said on January 11 that overseas demand may grow at a "sluggish pace."
Taking a two-year view on markets: long-dated warrants
Macquarie has a range of call warrants over blue chip stocks that expire in 2011 and 2012. The following warrants have exercise prices close to their respective last traded underlying share prices:
CapitaLand: CapitalaMBLeCW120103 (JA7W) exercise price $4.10.*
Cosco: CoscoCorpMBLeCW120103 (JA4W) exercise price $1.30.*
DBS: DBS MBL ECW120103 (JA6W) exercise price $13.80.*
DBS: DBS MBL eCW111003 (IL6W) exercise price $15.50.*
Genting: GentingSMBLeCW120402 (J2UW) exercise price $1.15.*
SGX: SGX MBL eCW110901 (IL4W) exercise price $9.00.*
SingTel: SingTelMBLeCW110404 (HJ5W) exercise $2.90.*
UOB: UOB MBL ECW120103 (JA8W) exercise price $17.80.*
Why buy long dated warrants instead of buying shares or margin instruments?
With long dated warrants, you pay only a fraction of the share price up front and get exposure to the capital movements in the underlying share over the life of the warrant. Your losses are limited to your investment capital, and under normal circumstances, you will not face margin calls or forced selling.
Lower time decay for longer dated warrants
One of the concerns of longer term investors is the time decay of warrants. The shorter dated a warrant, the higher the rate of decay.
Hence longer term investors should actually look for warrants that have a lifespan of 1 to 2 years, as the rate of time decay is much less than the shorter dated warrants.
Longer dated warrants – a more conservative choice
The effective gearing of a warrant estimates the amount a warrant price will move for a corresponding share price move. Thus a warrant with an effective gearing of 5X means for a 1% movement in the underlying share price, the warrant should move approximately 5%.
Longer dated warrants tend to have lower effective gearing compared to shorter dated warrants. Thus longer term investors who may not have an aggressive or high risk profile tend to prefer longer dated warrants.